4 Ways To Forecast Currency Changes -, Exchange rate forecasting literature review

Exchange rate forecasting literature review

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So when a country is experiencing inflation, the price of the pen will go up domestically, and their currency must depreciate to return to PPP. When basing a forecast on these factors, it’s easier to take into account inflation and the impact of artificially inflated currencies.

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Not even a restless Bank of England can save the Pound from renewed weakness this year, while the Euro also faces headwinds in the short term, leaving the US Dollar as winner this quarter and next.

The outcome is clear. For the real exchange rate of the euro and US dollar, both the PPP and DSGE models overwhelmingly outperform the random walk, especially at longer horizons. The analysis clearly highlights that the DSGE model is useful in forecasting the real exchange rate, but that its performance is not necessarily better than that of a much simpler PPP framework. This suggests that the good performance of the model is probably not due to its rich short-term dynamics, but mainly to the built-in mean reversion mechanism of the real exchange rate.

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Exchange rate forecasting literature review

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exchange rate forecasting literature review
exchange rate forecasting literature review

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